Logistics sector is still optimistic about the future. Production and trade are in the red

Panattoni, the leader of the industrial real estate market in Europe, and CBRE present the report 'Confidence Index 2019/2020". Attitude towards the future in logistics, production and trade industries changed slightly compared to last year. The Optimism Level Index in Logistics and Supply Chain in Poland for 2019-2020 was determined at an average level of 49 points, which is lower than the result obtained last year (57.4). Logistics companies are again more positive about the future (53.9 points) than production and trade enterprises using logistics services (44 points). Despite this change in mood, as many as 7 out of 10 institutions assess the costs of supply chain operations in Poland as lower than the EU average, and 6 out of 10 believe that Poland is competitive as a place of investment - both statistics have increased since last year.

"The two biggest challenges facing logistics and the entire supply chain sector are problems regarding filling vacancies with qualified employees and increasing wage pressure. They are the ones that most affect the uncertainty and visible worsening in mood of the industry. Our respondents are also worried about the slowdown in global economic growth, including German manufacturing sector’s slowdawn, which may affect weaker results in the international trade arena. It should be noted, however, that a worse attitude to the future is not due to the worse business results of companies, but only to a large sense of uncertainty in connection with the perspective of various changes and turbulences on the international market. The respondents surveyed by us did not pay attention to aspects related to real estate prices or availability of space as having an impact on the level of business optimism" - says Beata Hryniewska, Head of Warehouse Space and Logistics Department of CBRE.

The Optimism Level indicator is based on calculations covering the percentage of respondents reporting a change for better, no change and a change for worse in the sector. As a result, the score over 50 means anticipating changes for the better, and below 50 - changes for the worse. The further the score is from 50, the stronger the improvement or worsening is predicted in the future.

Logistics is still in a good mood
The Optimism Level Index in Logistics and the Supply Chain in Poland for the years 2019-2020 was set at 49, which is lower than the result achieved last year (57.4). As in previous edition of the study, you can see the difference between industries. Although the mood has decreased also in logistics companies, it still remains at a good level - it is 53.9 (from 64.1 in 2018). In manufacturing and trade enterprises, the indicator fell for the first time to a level forecasting a change for the worse - 44, compared to 50.4 last year. This means that, in general, production and trade enterprises are now more pessimistic about the market situation than logistics.

At EU level, we still feel confident
However, it turns out that when comparing the situation in Poland in relation to the rest of the European Union, entrepreneurs are constantly aware of their advantages. 7 out of 10 believe that the costs of supply chain operations in our country are more favorable than the average in Europe. This is more than last year, when 58% had such opinion. Poland's investment attractiveness was also assessed very positively. 59% of entrepreneurs believe that Poland has a competitive advantage as an investment destination compared to other European Union countries (an increase from 47% last year). The speed of actions in the supply chain and the availability of a qualified workforce are further elements in which our companies feel confident - 41% and nearly 49% of respondents respectively indicated "better than average".

"Poland is characterized by very high attractiveness and investment competitiveness. The perceived slowdown is just a decrease in growth dynamics. The market continues to grow, only slightly slower" - comments Michał Samborski, Head of Development, Panattoni Europe. And he adds: "The logistics and supply chain sector is a key element of the economy, so necessary that its resistance to the slowdown is high, especially since we are only at the beginning of the e-commerce growth. Less optimism of production and trade companies, contrary to appearances, will work in favour of those industries - awareness of the impending slowdown allows you to be properly prepared for this. We see that this is happening, and companies are still investing in the future, improving their competitiveness. They spend the largest outlays on fleet operations, warehouses and innovative technologies" - sums up Michał Samborski.

At the same time, the results presented in the CBRE and Panattoni Europe report 'Confidence Index 2019/2020' show that Poland's international competitiveness is reduced by formalities and bureaucratic decision-making. In this matter, companies are consistent, regardless of the industry. For example, the process of obtaining building permits was rated as worse than the average in the European Union by 36% of respondents.

The full report can be downloaded here: https://confidenceindex.industrialgo.pl/en

Methodology "Confidence Index 2019/2020"
The third edition of the report "Confidence Index 2019/2020. Optimism Index for Logistics and Supply Chain in Poland ”was developed by CBRE and Panattoni Europe with the support of the Analytiqa research agency. The survey was carried out on a group of 51 respondents, including 26 logistics companies and 25 companies in the manufacturing and commercial industry (companies using logistics services). All respondents represented managerial positions. The research was conducted using a survey method in 2019.